The Weak Form Efficiency Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 6 Words: 1814 Downloads: 4 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Analytical essay Did you like this example? Fama, after the publication of his world renowned article in May 1970 he is known as the godfather of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). It all began when he submitted his Ph.D. thesis which entitled Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. In that paper he defined the concept of accurate market efficiency. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The Weak Form Efficiency Finance Essay" essay for you Create order EMH allows that when there is new information available, some of the managers or the investors may overreact and some of them may underreact with the change in the new information. The main requirement of the EMH is to ensure that the managers (investors) reactions are random, which means the pattern of the results on net effect on market prices cannot be exploited by the managers (investors) for an abnormal profit for their company. So that it has random walk. Therefore if someone makes a profit from a share everybody can make a profit from it and if someone makes a loss then everybody makes a loss on that share. Fama came up with three forms of efficient market hypothesis. They are: weak form efficiency, semi-form efficiency and strong form efficiency. These three forms have different kinds of explanation how the markets run. 1- Weak Form efficiency- The price of the share cannot be predicted by the investors by analysing from the past results or by past series. It is quite i mpossible to gain abnormal profits by analysing the future price of the share, by any managers investment strategic or by historical results. The price of the share cannot have any series results, which means the results of the future price movement is predicted by the information which does not have any past results or past series. The price of the future result must have a random walk. Figure 1 show that it is quite impossible for the managers to predict the future price as the price the share is constantly moving. Fiqure-1 2- Semi Form Efficiency- It states that the price of the share cannot be manipulate by publicly available information in a very unbiased fashion, so that no extra profit can be made by the managers (investors) by studying all the public information. The adjustments of the information to the public must be reasonable size so that no one can manipulate the price of the share. If there is any such information then it will suggest that the information has been provided to manipulate the price of the share, which means the provider has acted in an inefficient manner. Figure 2 shows that the results after the public announcement. Fiqure-2 3-Srong Form Efficiency- It shares all the information with the public and with the investors but it makes sure no one can get any extra profit with the available information. There can only be a legal restriction on providing all the information to the public with the fear it may be manipulated by inside trading, or sharing the information. The market has to be fair so that the managers (investors) can earn extra profits for long period of time. In 1996 and in 2008 Dhaka Stock Exchange saw a massive blow in their Stock Exchange by not controlling the information, which resulted of inside trading. Figure -3 shows even though the results at the end are consistent but it is difficult for long term to predict for the managers (investors) all over the world. Figure- 3 PART -B Introduction The most important issue in finance research and interest is the efficiency of financial markets. When money is put in the market by the investors their aim is to generate the return on the capital invested as quickly as possible. Efficient market is where the market price is unbiased to estimate the true value of the investment. There are several key concepts: Market price and the true value do not have to be same every time. Examples Price of the outcome can be greater or less then the true value as long the deviation are random. Facts of the results of the deviation of the true value are random, which means there is a chance the value of the stock is undervalued or overvalued. No investors can be able to find the consecutive outcome of under or over value. Analysis Positive signs tend to proceed from good financial reports from a company. That is the reason why the technical patterns makes the move forward and anticipate the fundamental reports. Brock et al (1992), Technical analysis offers the investors with the opportunity of responding in real-time to a stocks behavior in which the investors do not have to wait for the next report from the company. Brock et al (1992), Fundamental analysis looks at the financial statement of the company .Therefore the investor can make a decision for the investment by the past financial statement. Efficient markets theory describe the price of an assets must show all the information that is available about the core value of the asset. Almost every form of the financial securities covers in efficient market theory (EMT) but except one kind of security which is being well discussed, shares of common stock in company. Theoretically, the investors get encouraged by the actuality of undervalued or overvalu ed stocks. That is the only reason there is a change in price of current value of future cash flow. Investment analysis looks at the mispriced stocks and that makes the market more effective which causes the price to yield the core value. The efficient market has to be random so the new information is random as well (favorable or unfavorable), which results in random walk in stock prices. This drives the investors not to invest heavily because there is no certainty of the returns as the price reflects the core value. In two ways the informational efficiency matters in stock prices. They are: investors care whether various trading strategies can earn returns and if stock prices reveal all the information accurately. To differentiate among the three forms of market efficiency it is easy to say that weak form stops technical analysis from being profitable, while semi-strong form stops the profitability of both technical and fundamental analysis, and strong form results, that even th ose with inside information of the company cannot expect to earn excess returns. Evidence for and against the Efficient Market Hypothesis Weak form efficiency A) The day of the week effect Cross (1973) and Gibbons and Hess (1981) elaborated that share prices fall on Mondays and rise on Fridays. However Dickinson and Muragu (1994) studied that the Nairobi Stock Exchange and found out that the day of the week effect does not affect the small stock exchange. Therefore it can be said the EMH is preferable in most of the stock exchanges in the world as it is not easy to predict by the outcome by the managers (investor) to invest in any stock exchange. B) The January small firms effect EMH face the challenge when January effects comes around, Keim (1983) sttes that US stock market studied that not only the return on stocks in January is high in relation to other months but the returns of small company stocks perform better in the month of January. Burton Malkiel, asserts Wall Street traders now joke that the January effect is more likely to occur on the previous Thanksgiving. Therefore it can be said even though the firms benefit from th e seasonal effect but there is no certainty with the actual result. The investors may think to invest more in December but they do not know the actual results. Semi strong Efficiency A) The price earnings effect Basu (1977) studied from 1957 71 the portfolio of different price earnings ratios ( P/E ) and the result was that the return on company stocks with low P/E ratios is much higher than the return on companies with relatively high P/E. In (1993) Fuller examined series of test but still got the same result but he found out that the result is not the same for the superiorly low company. Therefore it can be said though price earning effect can occur in stock market but it does not mean it will be for every low company. The investor will struggle to invest in that company because the low profile company results always different. B) The size effect Banz (1981) studied that the period of 1936 77 the excess return from holding stocks in the small company compared to the large company by 19.8 %. The firm size effect was as accurate as the firms betas in explaining the excess return which clearly contradict with the EMH. However some author urged that the r esults from the small firms are too low to evaluate their historical results. Strong Form Efficiency A) The Directors/Mangers share purchase Jaffe (1974) studied that the managers and the directors earn excess return from their trade, with all the information of inside which is contradictory with strong -form EMH. After the early 2000 scandal the US government and the NASDAQ implemented that the directors of the company has to be independent so that no information on inside trading. As the directors are independent there is no chance of getting any inside knowledge about the company by the investors. B) Information content of analysts forecast Elton (1986) studied that excess return can be earn once due allowance had been made for risk by buying upgraded stocks or stocks that were in a higher classification and selling downgraded stocks or stocks in a lower classification. However it needs a certain warranty before the trading on a brokers recommendation. Therefore the investors need to accelerate their trade because there is no certainty with the information. Conclusion- In fundamental way the prices may differ from long and slow movement but in two ways EMT is still useful. 1) For shorter period, examples as days, weeks and months. EMT can explain the movement of stock price changes with considerable evidence. That is the answer of stock prices to all new information reasonably the change in the core value of the assets.2) EMT serves as a scale for how prices should move if capital investment, funds, assets are to be allocated efficiently. All the outcomes depend on the transparency of information, the effectiveness of regulation and the prospect of rational arbitragers will drive out noisy investors. In fact the informational efficiency of stock prices moves across markets to markets and country to country. Whatever the outcomes of capital markets, there is no better alternatives of allocating investment capital. In fact most countries have recognized it for their future goal. Critics may say that an EMH passionate would not pick up a hundr ed dollar note from the road because according to the EMH, that note cannot be there, either the note is fake or somebody must already have picked it up. EMH can make investors miss some investment opportunities on their investment, but it will also protect the investors from hidden and unknown risks.

Traditional Marketing And Advertisement And Social Media

Traditional Marketing and Advertisement and Social Media What is a product without a voice? When a product is created, marketing and adverting is the best way gain recognition; whether it’s tangible or intangible. Traditional marketing and advertisement didn’t have social media’s enhancements and access to broader markets. Social media has not only enhanced traditional marketing but it also has saved many organizations money. According to Safko, (2013) â€Å"We all know that Traditional marketing media is expensive. One of the biggest surprises most new businesses have is the cost of doing a simple print piece, such as a brochure or a postcard sent to people in a given geographic area. Seldom do businesses allocate enough money to do adequate marketing, resulting in failure to build much name recognition or brand image† (para 7). Social media has allowed for organizations to increase their branding through ads and marketing strategies. In doing so it has saved them time and money. Traditional Marketing The key objective of marketing and ads is to get the consumer to purchase a product or service but to also keep cost down. Traditional marketing is expensive and if you want results you have to pay for it. According to Safko (2013), â€Å"In the world of traditional media, you most often pay for eyeballs or impressions. The more people you want to reach, the more it will cost you. Consider all the costs that go into planning a traditional marketing campaign—money you haveShow MoreRelatedHow Social Media Has Changed The Way Of Marketing948 Words   |  4 PagesSocial media has become a valuable tool for various types of activities, but most importantly for marketing and its connection with consumers, organizations and brands. Technology has drastically changed the way marketing has always been remembered. 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Financial report on luton brickworks Plc. Free Essays

string(122) " DIRECTOR B Argues that whether a cash dividend is paid or not is irrelevant in the context of shareholders maximisation\." Introduction Luton Brickworks plc is newly formed company which aims to maximise the wealth of its shareholders. The board of directors of the company is currently trying to decide on the most appropriate dividend policy to adopt for the company’s shareholders. However, there is a strong disagreement between three of the directors concerning the benefits of declaring cash dividends. We will write a custom essay sample on Financial report on luton brickworks Plc. or any similar topic only for you Order Now Director A argues that cash dividends would be welcome by investors and that a high dividend payout ratio as possible would reflect positively on the market value of the shares. Director B argues that whether a cash dividend is paid or not is irrelevant in the context of shareholder maximisation. Director C takes an opposite view and argues that dividend payments should be avoided, as they would lead to a decrease in shareholder wealth. Required: Present the theory of organisational dividend policies and integrate the assignment into your discussion. a) Discuss the arguments for and against the position taken by each of the three directors b) Assuming the board of directors decides to pay a dividend to Shareholders what factors should be taken into account when determining the level of dividend payment. What is Dividend? The term dividend refers to the part of divisible profits among its shareholders. In other words, dividend is that portion of company’s profit which is distributed among its shareholders as a percentage of par values of share at a fixed rate per share according to the decision of its board of directors. The main purpose of any business is to create profits for its owners. When any company earns profit from its business, they can reinvest that money in their business, but some companies pay profits to its share holders. However when a company decides to pay dividend to shareholders, the cash available for business will reduce. Dividend inukare paid on a semi annual basis, net of deduction of tax at the standard personal income tax rate, these are called interim dividends. These interim dividends tend to be smaller than final dividends due to cash flow, taxation financial planning considerations (Sangray, 2010). Types of Dividends: 1)Cash Dividend 2)Stock Dividend 3)Stock Splits Dividend CASH DIVIDEND: Cash dividend plays a dominant role in sharing company’s profit; shareholders are being paid in part of company’s profit. However in US they double the taxation of cash dividend at a maximum rate of 15% and dividends are distributed to shareholders only after company pays income tax. STOCK DIVIDEND: Stock dividend is paid to shareholders only if the companies not having healthy cash position, by combining the profits of both current previous year. Such shares are also called as ‘bonus shares’ instead of paying dividend as cash. There is no great change in equity of shareholders, as stock dividend is paid until actual stock sold in order to avoid paying taxes. In general share holders have more scope to receive additional shares from the company, where it depends on the amount already owned by shareholders. STOCK SPLITS DIVIDEND: Stock split dividend is performed in a company, if there is increase in share price, obviously investors shares become too expensive to buy. Whereas liabilities, assets, equity remains same. InUKstock split is referred as â€Å"scrip issue†, â€Å"bonus issue†, â€Å"capitalization† or â€Å"free issue†. This stock split dividend resembles stock dividend. Source: investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp SHAREHOLDERS WEALTH MAXIMIZATION: Shareholders profit maximization consolidates the volume of risk time. The goal of SWM states that the present value of the expected future cash flow of the firm should be maximized to shareholders. ARGUMENTS DIRECTOR A: He argues that cash dividends would be welcome by investors that a high dividend payout ratio as possible would reflect positively on the market value of the shares. This argument deals with RELEVANCE THEORY, where the supporting model for this argument is WALTER’S MODEL James E. Walter (1999): dividends are relevant. The investment policy of a company dividend policy both are inter-related as they cannot be separated by their own. The value of an enterprise will be affected by dividend policy. Formula for Walter’s model: P= D/Ke-g Where P= PRICE OF EQUITY SHARES D= INITIAL DIVIDEND Ke= COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL G= GROWTH RATE EXPECTED ANOTHER MODEL WHICH SUPPORTS THIS ARGUMENT IS GORDON LINTNER MODEL Dividend relevance, as argued by â€Å"Linter and Gordon†, suggested that investors preferred dividends to capital gains due to their certainty w The Gordon model can be used to find the theoretical value of a share by summing the share’s discounted future dividend payments to infinity: P0= Do (1+g)/(y-g) Where: P0 = current ex-dividend market price of the share r=shareholders’ required rate of return g= expected future growth rate of dividends D0 = declared dividend at time t0 Dividend relevance was further supported by the argument that dividends were seen by investors as signals of a company’s future profitability. Arguments in favour of statement: 1)The company should pay dividend to shareholders if they have sufficient liquidity to satisfy their requirements. 2)The dividend acts as a signal to investors about the profits of the company is higher or not. 3)The company’s market value confidence in society increase only if the dividends are paid to investors. 4)If company pays regular cash payments to customers the firm will be recognised in the market to get financial support from other institutions with reasonable interest rates. Arguments against the statement: 1)If the company pays dividend to investors in initial stage, it may lead to failure in important opportunities. 2)The share value of the company decreases if the company pays more dividends to shareholders. This leads to negative impact in the market. 3)According to nature of the business the company may suffer loss, as dividend may adversely affect the company. 4) The regular payout of dividends will also be taxed on regular intervals, as they are corporation profits. If this profits are transferred to reserves,(capital gains) in long run, the total impact of tax would be less than the tax paid on regular dividend payments. DIRECTOR B Argues that whether a cash dividend is paid or not is irrelevant in the context of shareholders maximisation. This argument deals with IRRELEVANCE THEORY, the supporting models for this theory could be MILLER MODIGLIANI MODEL According to â€Å"Miller and Modigliani† (2010 Sudesh Sangray) the dividend payments were irrelevant should only be offered as a residual the value of a firm is unaffected by the distribution of dividends and is determined solely by the earning power and risk of its assets. The dividend policy may have no influence on the market price of the shares. Assumptions of MM model Surveillance of perfect capital markets and investors in it are rational. Securities are infinitely divisible, as there is no transactions cost, investor cannot influence the market price of securities and there are no floatation costs. There are no differences in tax rates which are applicable to capital gains and dividends. The investment policy of a firm does not change. It implies the financial status of the company which gives an opportunity to invest in new projects. As retain earnings will not change the business risk of the firm. Arguments in favour of statement: (MR.B) 1)Investors will not get affected if dividend is paid but investment policy will have impact on shareholders wealth maximization. 2)The investors are less concern about dividend payment as they always want to maximise their wealth. 3)The home made dividend pays to shareholders who expect regular income selling particular shares instead of anticipating dividend. 4)If a company tries to get income from external source, by supplying sufficient funds, then retain earnings come completely irrelevant. Where shareholders wealth can be maximised by getting income from external source. Arguments against the statement: (MR.B) The perfect capital market is unrealistic. Practically, there are taxes, floatation costs and transaction costs. Paying present cash dividend is far better than capital gains, where whose appearance is definite more accepted by the shareholders. If a company paying dividend from external source of income is not a good idea, as it leads to increase in interest rate gearing ratio, which will effect shareholders wealth. DIRECTOR C This argument deals with which is similar to relevance theory, there is no specific model that supports this argument, but Argument for and against that Dividend payment should be avoided since it reduces Shareholders Wealth Arguments in favour of the statement Net income of the share holders decreases, as they pay taxes on dividend received. This result to decrease of wealth. The profitable opportunities for firm reduce, when there is regular payment of dividend to shareholders. So, the firm should try to avoid the dividend payment to its shareholders and try to concentrate on its investment opportunities. Argument against the Statement As mentioned by â€Å"Watson Head† (2004) in the article â€Å"DIVIDEND POLICY† cash dividend plays an important role to provide reliable information to the investors. That financial condition of company is strong. The uncertainty of shareholders income reduces when payment of cash dividend is high. The management tries to reduce conflict ensure their personal benefits are mention, as there is a scope of agency problems because of owner’s interest. There is decrease in interest rates when dividend payment is high which indicates the shareholders wellbeing is doing well by management are not. FACTORS DETERMINE DIVIDEND PAYMENT: The decision of dividend is difficult because of conflicting objectives lack of decision making techniques, maximizing shareholders wealth is not easy in the long run. FACTORS AFFECTING DIVIDEND POLICY: NATURE OF BUSINESS: Mostly dividend policy is adopted by companies which earn unstable profits; where it is different from company earn stable profits. COMPOSITION OF SHAREHOLDING: If the company have cumulative preference shares, they have to be paid the present year dividend in the next year along with next year dividend and if it has equity share they need not be paid even the company has profits. Example: Microsoft etc. RESTRICTIONS BY CONCERNED BODIES: In long-term some financial companies restrict the company on paying dividend to shareholders, they pronounced a clause that no payment to be made till the loan amount is repaid back to financial institutions. INFLATION: During inflation it is not much important to pay dividend. As there is no chance of replacing the equipment as funds are generated from depreciation. FIRM ORIENTED CONSIDERATION: The dividend policy is not determined by ownership interest rates. As firm’s needs are considered as important, this includes the following. Business cycles Risk of losing control on organization Post dividend policies and stockholders relationships. Relative cost of external funds Contractual legal restrictions Availability of external capital LIQUIDITY: As explained in Investopedia Dictionary. â€Å"The degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset’s price. Liquidity is characterized by a high level of trading activity†. To increase the sales profits earned by company should reinvest in fixed assets working capital. There are some companies which cannot generate sufficient cash even if they get profitable income. OWNERSHIP CONSIDERATIONS: The identification of owner’s interest becomes difficult if it is decentralized on wide spectrum. As every shareholder have their own objectives different opinions. Investor companies are which combines the mix of both growth desired dividends. CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS Concluding that, this report explains the financial status of the company and their decision regarding shareholders wealth maximization. 1)Dividend is paid to shareholders dividend policy is taken to distribute dividend to shareholders. 2)There are 3 types of dividends cash, stock, stock splits dividend, which plays a key role in paying dividends. 3)Paying dividend to shareholders is an added advantage, which increase the company’s reputation in the market. 4)There is a possible adverse effect to the company depending on the nature of the business. 5)As investors always look forward to maximise their wealth. 6) It is not a good idea to pay dividend to shareholders now, as investors may think that the company is not having any future projects to enhance their business. 7)Recommending that the company should wait for some time to gain good reputation in market and investors as well to get more profits, which help to increase in market share, and overall profits of the company. 8)Concluding that as Luton Bricks Plc is new to company in market, there will have less scope for earning profits. REFERENCES DR.R.SRINIVASAN. (2009). Important theories of dividend policy – an appraisal. Available: http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/important-theories-of-dividend-policyan-appraisal-1353119.html. Last accessed 2nd Aug 2010. Linter. John. (1956). Distribution of income corporation among. The American Economic. 46 (2), 2-15. American psychological association. Www.dictionary.com. dividend, Collins English dictionary, 10th edition. May 22, 2011. Pike Richard. (1996). Decisions and Strategies. In: Richard Pike and Bill Neale Corporate finance and investment. 2nd Ed.New York: Prentice Hall,. 196-216. Watson, Denzil. And Head Antony(2007). Corporate finance: principles and practices. 4th ed.Harlow: ft/prentice hall. pg.no:286. Sangray, S. (2011) Week-10. Advanced Corporate Finance, Dividend Policy. (Online). Available at www.breo.beds.ac.uk.(accessed on December 10, 2010). Gitman, L., J. (2009) the principles of managerial finance. 12th ed.London: Pearson Prentice Hall. Agrawalsumeets. (2010). Theories-of-Dividend-Policy. Available: http://www.scribd.com/doc/28162428/Theories-of-Dividend-Policy. Last accessed 27 July 2011. Dictionary. (2007). Dividend. Available: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dividend.asp. Last accessed 02 august 2011. How to cite Financial report on luton brickworks Plc., Essay examples